Round and gray-bearded, 62-year-old Dutch politician Frans Timmermans exudes the seriousness of a longtime bureaucrat enforcing the rules, which is not far from the truth. Over the past four years, as vice-president of the European Commission (and therefore second fiddle to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen), the Dutch social democrat has become known in Europe as the tireless face of Green European Deal, the sprawling project of the European Union. package of climate protection measures.
Round and gray-bearded, 62-year-old Dutch politician Frans Timmermans exudes the seriousness of a longtime bureaucrat enforcing the rules, which is not far from the truth. Over the past four years, as vice-president of the European Commission (and therefore second fiddle to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen), the Dutch social democrat has become known in Europe as the tireless face of Green European Deal, the sprawling project of the European Union. package of climate protection measures.
Now, in the November 22 general election in the Netherlands, Timmermans is heading a joint list called Labour/GreenLeft, a merger of Timmermans’ own social democratic party and the Dutch Greens. And the question is whether his reputation as a climate bureaucrat will hurt his chances of becoming a populist politician.
What is beyond doubt is that Timmermans has fought effectively to put the EU at the forefront of the world on climate policy, from car emissions standards to restoration of wet area. He helped the EU navigate the 2022-2023 energy crisis, instituting measures to simultaneously end European dependence on Russian fossil fuels and strengthen the Green Deal, saving more energy , deploying renewable energy more quickly and filling gas storage facilities to the brim.
So it was a blow to environmentalists when Timmermans announced this summer that he would step down to run for office in his homeland. “Many people felt that all the progress – the higher targets, carbon pricing and other Green Deal measures linked to Timmermans – could be at risk,” said Jörg Mühlenhoff of the Heinrich Böll Foundation, a group of German think tank based in Brussels.
The Brussels heavyweight seemed to be the ideal person for the Labor/Green list since he embodies the objectives of social justice and climate protection like no one else. Additionally, he led the Dutch Labor Party to victory in the 2019 European Parliament elections. News of his return shook up the polls in the Netherlands, as the Labor/Greens list rose to the top, putting Timmermans at stake as the country’s next prime minister.
But poll numbers have declined and today Labor/GreenLeft is fighting to be among the top four parties out of 29 contesting. “To win, this (coalition) had to penetrate the ranks of the conservatives, and it did not succeed,” said Jacco Pekelder of the Center for Dutch Studies at the University of Münster in Germany. “Timmermans found it difficult to shake off the image of a detached and intellectual Brussels politician. He seems far too serious and unfriendly, something he has fought to change but has been unable to.
Timmermans might have guessed that his Green Deal credentials would not be worth much in the Netherlands. Like elsewhere in Europe – in fact, like almost everywhere else in Europe – climate policies are facing fierce backlash in the Netherlands, with a boost for far-right parties and damage for their green-tinted opponents. Even within the EU itself, Timmermans and von der Leyen have had to compromise this year on important aspects of the Green Deal, backtracking on emissions reduction targetsTHE nature protection lawand one Combustion engine to forbid.
In the Netherlands, the writing was on the wall before Timmermans entered the fray. In the summer of 2022, Dutch breeders brought the country to a stop protest against a legislative proposal aimed at reducing agricultural pollution. The Netherlands is a major exporter of agricultural products, including livestock-related products – including cheese – which emit huge amounts of nitrogen, a potent greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change. With 1.6 million cows, a dense population and intense traffic, it produces four times as much nitrogen as other European countries.
Aiming to meet its decarbonization targets by 2030, the Dutch conservative government has proposed a number of measures intended to make agriculture more sustainable. But these measures have infuriated Dutch farmers, who blocked highways and city centers with tractors, occupied urban spaces and set fire to bales of manure and hay. Grocery store shelves were emptied and the country came to a standstill. Despite the inconveniences, the protests generated sympathy and support from the population, who saw salt-of-the-earth farmers being duped by urban elites. In the provincial elections in early 2023, the new Farmer Citizen Movement, which goes by the Dutch acronym BBB, upset the established parties by winning the vote.
“The farmers’ protests have sent a clear message to The Hague: the countryside will no longer accept being neglected,” explained Louise van Schaik of the Clingendael Institute in The Hague. “The spring results represented a protest vote, but not a very lasting vote. These voters have already returned to the conservative parties which originally dealt with farmers’ problems. Today, conservative parties are showing more skepticism about serious climate action.”
Although the BBB’s popularity has waned, it is among a number of populist movements – including France’s yellow vest protests (2021) and Polish coal miners’ protests (2021-23) – signaling to European politicians that when climate laws have a direct impact on living standards or livelihoods, they will not be endured without a fight. Across Europe, far-right and conservative forces have taken advantage of this discontent to force the EU and its member states to dilute or scrap climate legislation seen as essential to decarbonization.
This is why Timmermans and the Labour/Green campaign have moved cautiously on environmental issues, even go back on their commitment to halving nitrogen emissions by 2030, which is seen as crucial to meeting the Netherlands’ climate goals.
Timmermans instead focused on classic social democratic themes such as increasing investment in the Dutch welfare state, including affordable housing, the health system and education. He wants to increase the minimum wage as well as taxes on multinational companies. As for the EU: it “has barely been a topic discussed in these elections, making it harder for Timmermans to highlight past successes.” one observer noted.
Looking ahead to next year’s European Parliament elections, where all 27 countries’ seats will be up for grabs, Timmermans’ soft policy on climate issues – and even his backtracking on the Green Deal – could be in order for the dominant parties. European conservatives already present climate action as antithetical to the continent’s financial well-being, even opposing measures to which von der Leyen, another conservative, has put her name. “They think it’s a better bet for them than a campaign centered on the theme of migration, which occupies the far right,” van Schaik said.
It is difficult to predict what place the Labor/Green list will have in the coalition government that will take over the current Dutch government. Given the fractured political landscape in the Netherlands, the next government will likely be made up of four or more parties. Among those currently ahead of Timmermans’ party is the liberal conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), which has led the executive branch since 2010 under Prime Minister Mark Rutte and is now under the new leadership of Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius. , who immigrated to the country as a child refugee. A new star on the scene is the New Social Contract party, which campaigns for good governance and social security and opposes greater European integration. And then there’s Geert Wilders, the white-capped populist Islamophobe who burst into Dutch politics 25 years ago and who aspires to be part of a far-right conservative leadership that will stem migration, reduce climate ambitions and will bring the Netherlands out. of the European alliance supporting Ukraine.
If talented European statesman Timmermans finds himself in the backbenches of the Dutch Parliament, rather than in the executive, he might wonder whether his services have not been better used to shape policy from Brussels . It would also be fair to ask whether anyone can find a way to translate climate policy into the more complicated language of national electoral politics.
